Cost of Waiting to Buy in Both Price and Interest Rates

Have you ever been shopping on a website where you were looking at something that was on sale?  You were interested in it but there wasn’t a sense of urgency and maybe, you had a lot going on and didn’t get back to it for a few days.  When you did go back to the website, the price on the item had returned to its regular price.

How did you feel?  Did you go ahead and purchase it for the current price?  How did that make you feel knowing that if you had acted more decisively, you would have saved money and had the product by now?

In 2021, homes across the United State went up 19.1% on average.  There were some markets where the prices soared 30 to 40%.  Fortunately, last year the mortgage rates did remain relatively stable but that isn’t the situation this year, in 2022.

At the end of 2021, economists from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, felt like prices would go up around 7% for 2022.  The Mortgage Bankers Association and the Home Price Expectation Survey predicted more like 5% and Zelman Research and the National Association of REALTORS� forecast closer to 3%.

While the number of sales did decline at the end of February 2022 to 7.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, that could be explained as a lack of houses for sale.  In the same month, inventory was 1.7 months which is down from 2 months in February 2021.  The median sales price had a year over year increase of 15.0% to $357,300.

The Fed had their first of what may be four or five interest rate hikes this year to try and get control of the inflation rate.  We have already seen mortgage rates at the 4.5% price and that is for borrowers with the best credit.  Those with less than sterling credit can expect to pay more.

It is anyone’s guess at where rates will end a year from now, but many experts think this decade of low rates is over and we’ll not likely to see them again.

There is a pent-up demand for houses to buy and an urgency to buy before the rates get higher.  If a buyer waits a year to purchase a home but the price goes up by 5% and the interest rate goes up by 1%, it will have a dramatic effect on the payment.

  5% price increase10% price increase
Sales Price$400,000$420,000$440,000
Mortgage$360,000$378,000396,000
Current Rate vs Possible 1.00% increase4.5%5.5%5.5%
Monthly Payment$1,824$2,146$2,248
Payment Difference $322.18$424.38
Additional Cost for 7 years $27,063$35,648
Additional Cost for 30 years $115, 983$152,776

If the appreciation is closer to 10% increase, the negative effect of waiting is exacerbated.

The equity in a person’s home contributes greatly to their overall net worth and wealth position.  The effect is very apparent in contrast to renters compared to homeowners whose net worth is 1/40th of the homeowners $300,000 or $8,000 for the renters.

As people stair step their way into larger homes to not only meet their increasing demands but also to enjoy the amenities of a nicer home, the equity will continue to grow based on two dynamics: appreciation and equity-build up.  The renters do not benefit from either of these.

To run your own comparison, using your own numbers and what you believe will happen in the marketplace, go to Cost of Waiting to Buy.  If you haven’t developed a plan to purchase in today’s market whether it be your first home or a move-up, you need facts and a trusted team of professionals to work for you.

It starts with finding an agent who will be as committed to find your home as you are.  We would love to help you or your friends.  It is what we do.

Instead of a vision, show them the house

Sellers try to rationalize not making needed updating and repairs to their homes before marketing them by saying they are going to let the buyers make their own personal choices.  It is a convenient story to justify not going to the effort for the necessary market preparation to justify achieving the highest possible sales price.

An agent told a story of a home that was structurally sound being on the market, but it needed significant cosmetic work, like paint, floorcovering, updated fixtures, and lots of yard work.  The house was vacant with the owner having moved out of town. 

The agent explained to a prospective buyer what he thought it would take to bring the home up-to-date and what it would be worth.  The buyer was from out of town and was going to be teaching at the university the next semester.  He returned home without buying and came back to look again two months later.

As they were looking at homes with the same agent, the question came up about the previously viewed home that needed work.  The agent told him that she had bought it and did all the things that she had suggested.  The buyer asked if he could look at it.  On seeing the property, now, in its pristine condition, the buyer asked the agent if she would sell the home to him at a profit.

The agent told him that it wasn’t for sale but followed up to the buyer with a question of her own.  “I told you that you could buy it for below market and gave you an estimate of what it would take to update it which would have you in the home below market value and with all the colors and choices of your own.  Why didn’t you buy it then?

The buyer admitted that it looked like a lot of work and that he just didn’t feel up to the challenge.  The main thing was that he just saw a lot of work and couldn’t really see the finished product.

This story is not novel; it happens frequently.  Buyers are not experienced enough to recognize what needs to be done, how much it would cost and how long it would take.  In many cases, they don’t have the connections with the different service providers.  In some cases, they simply can’t imagine what the home would look like after the renovations are made.

There are some buyers who scout out opportunities for do-it-yourself experiences where they can earn sweat equity by buying below market and making the repairs to add value to the home.  There are many more buyers who don’t know how and/or may not want the hassle and are willing to pay a higher price and be able to “move in” to their new home.

The highest prices being paid for homes are the ones in the best condition with the best locations.

The highly popular TV series Fixer Upper now, on the new Magnolia Network, uses this situation for the premise of each show.  People want to buy a home in great condition but can’t find what they want.  Chip and Joanna find a good home in a good neighborhood for them and sell the vision of what it could be.  The unique aspect of the show is that they act as agents, designers, and contractors to meet the buyers’ budget.

In the case of Fixer Upper, the buyer is the beneficiary of the increased equity for having taken the risk to make the repairs.  For the seller to be the beneficiary, they need to do the updating and repairs before marketing the home.

Ask your agent if they can provide suggestions of what items would most benefit from remodeling and if they have service providers that they can recommend.  The proceeds from the sale of your home belongs to you and to maximize them, it needs to sell for the highest possible price.  Your agent can work with you to make that happen.

Waiting Will Cost More

Mortgage rates have been kept artificially low by the Federal Reserve since the Great Recession in 2010.  There is a whole generation of people who have never known what might be called normal mortgage rates.  And then, most of the rest of the adults in America have forgotten what average rates were in the 60’s, 70’s, and especially, in the 80’s when they hit 18.45%.

The bottom of the market was February 2021 with 30-year fixed rates were 2.73%.  Current rates, as of February 10th, according to Freddie Mac, are at 3.69%.  Earlier predictions by NAR, FNMA, Freddie Mac, and MBA were that rates would go as high as 4.00% by the end of the year.

Those estimates may be considered low now based on concerns about inflation and the federal government’s efforts to keep it under control.  The Fed has announced a series of policy rate increases for the balance of the year.  Mortgage lenders, in anticipation of the rate hikes, have already started raising their rates as evidenced in the rates since January 3, 2022.

It is possible that a year from now, 30-year fixed rates could be at 5% or above.  This could make a significant difference in a buyer’s payments especially compounded with rising prices.

A $450,000 purchase price today with a 90% fixed-rate 30-year mortgage at 3.69% has a principal and interest payment of $1,862 a month.  If things continue to heat up and the mortgage rate goes up by one percent while the price increases by ten percent, a year from now, the home will cost $495,000 and the payment would be $446 higher each month for the term of the mortgage.

Use the cost of waiting to buy to make projections on the price home you want to buy based on your own estimate of what interest rate and appreciation will do in the next year.

Acting now causes the payment to get locked in at the lower rate and the increase in value belongs to the buyer as equity build-up.  Unfortunately, with the current state of supply and demand on housing inventory, waiting to purchase moves the bar higher and higher until some buyers will not qualify.

For more information, download the Buyers Guide.

Why a Home Should Be Your First Investment

Real estate has been described as the basis of all wealth.  Without considering income or investment property, buying a home to live in is an incredibly powerful way to build wealth or financial net worth.

A home is an asset measured by the size of the equity.  Equity is simply the difference between the value of the home and the amount owed.  There are two powerful dynamics at work to increase the equity which include appreciation and amortization.

Appreciation occurs when the fair market of the home increases.  The shortage of available inventory coupled with high demand has contributed to an 18% increase in value in the past year on average for homeowners in the U.S.

Most mortgage loans are amortized with monthly payments that include the interest that is owed for the previous month and an increasing amount that is paid toward the principal loan amount so that if all the payments are made, the loan would be repaid by the end of the term.

A 30-year mortgage at 3.5% interest on a $400,000 loan amount would have a principal and interest payment of $1,796.18 every month for 30 years.  After the interest is applied from the first payment, $629.51 would reduce the loan amount, thereby, increasing the owners’ equity.

Each succeeding payment would have an increasingly larger amount applied to the principal and a decreasingly lower amount applied to interest.

Recently, CoreLogic reported that homeowners with mortgages have seen their equity increase 29.3% since the second quarter of 2020.  Equity rich is defined as when combined loans secured by a property are no more than 50% of estimated market value.  ATTOM reported that 42% of mortgaged homes in the U.S. are considered equity rich as of the fourth quarter of 2021.

Another advantage of this powerful asset is that borrowing money against the equity of your home is a non-taxable event. Regardless of whether it is a refinance or a home equity loan, the borrowed money is not income and not taxable.

A homeowner could stay in the home for years and as the home increases in value due to appreciation, they could borrow against their equity as many times as the value will justify.  They could continue to pull money out of their home for decades and under the current tax law, they could die and will the home to their heirs who would receive a step up in basis and the taxes would never have to be recognized.

Lastly, let’s consider the home as an investment by looking at the rate of return.  Obviously, it is a personal asset that the homeowner will be able to live in, enjoy, raise a family, and share with their friends.  In calculating the rate of return, we consider a $375,000 home with a 3.00% 30-year FHA mortgage with a 3.5% down payment.  Using an annual appreciation of 3% and normal amortization, the $13,125 down payment in this home turns into a $148,062 equity in seven years.  The rate of return calculated is over 40% per year for the seven-year holding period.

Even if you discounted the ROI by half for all the unforeseen other expenses that may affect the real equity, it is still a 20% return on investment which could easily justify why purchasing a home should be your first investment.

It is challenging, particularly in some markets with low inventory, multiple offers, rising prices and increasing interest rates, but the advantages of owning a home are significant.  Would-be homeowners need the facts about their market and how to get into a home.  Start with downloading the Buyers Guide and make an appointment today! Call Marlene at 719-251-1272 or email at berrier6@msn.com

I wish I knew then…

We have all heard this expression that implies that had a person known earlier in life what they know now, they would have done things differently.  The subject possibilities are endless   While no one has a crystal ball to see into the future, it may be possible to learn from people who have experienced similar situations.

In the late sixties, mortgage rates hit 8.5% but before the decade had finished, the rates had come down to 7% where they stayed for some time.  Homeowners who purchased at the higher rate, could buy a larger, more expensive home for the same payment if they could get out from under the obligation of their existing mortgage.

FHA and VA mortgages, up until the late 80’s, could be assumed by anyone, regardless of credit worthiness.  Since these homes were purchased one or two years earlier, the sellers didn’t really have much equity in them, and many homeowners were willing to “give” them to investors so they could qualify on a new, lower rate mortgage.

It was a fantastic opportunity for investors who could afford the negative cash flow because the homes wouldn’t rent for the payment.  As the 70’s economy, started heating up, so did inflation.  Most people consider inflation an undesirable thing but for people who owned rental property, it meant the values were going up and so were the rents.

Soon, the rentals no longer had negative cash flows and the investments turned the corner.  If you talk to investors who purchased those homes during that period, you’ll very likely hear, “I should have bought more of them.”

If we could fast forward into the future to see how people will be talking about the period we’re currently in, we might see an even greater opportunity in our present time.  Interest and mortgage rates have been on a downward trend for thirty years.  In the past ten years, they hit an historic low.  They are trending up currently and it appears they will continue to do so.

Homes are in short supply which has caused the prices to go up.  Builders haven’t returned to the number of new units needed to meet demand and that has been going on for over ten years.  Even when the supply does increase, it will take a long time to catch up with demand.

Combine that with supply chain shortages due to the pandemic and prices look like they are unaffordable.  Many millennials and some Gen Xers believe the “window of opportunity” has closed.

For tenants, rents are continuing to increase due to the same causes that home prices are increasing.  Buyers, by acting now, can lock in their mortgage rate and the purchase price of the home.  As prices continue to increase and the amortization of the mortgage pays down the unpaid balance, homeowners’ equity increases and so does their net worth.

Unfortunately, for tenants, the rents will continue to rise, along with prices which will make it more difficult in the future to purchase.  Their rent is used to pay the landlord’s mortgage who benefits in the principal reduction for each payment made.

The market is changing and people who don’t own a home currently must find a way to buy one.  The longer they wait, the harder it will be to buy one.

People wanting to purchase a home in today’s market must educate themselves with facts and not hearsay.  There are all sorts of programs available to address low down payments, varieties of mortgages, credit issues and other things. 

It starts by meeting with a real estate professional who can recommend a trusted mortgage professional.  Download our Buyers Guide and check out your numbers using the Rent vs. Own.

An Easy Fix to Avoid a Flood in Your Home

Do you remember if or when you have replaced your washing machine hoses?  Are they the original hoses and if so, how old is your washing machine?  It is recommended that washing machine supply hoses should be replaced every five to seven years. 

Washing machines, like all appliances, are expected to work and when they don’t, it’s time to have them fixed or replaced.  However, there is a critical connection from the water supply that may even be older than your washing machine itself.

Eventually, unless hoses are replaced, they will fail, which on the mild side could be slow leaks or burst entirely, and could cause a catastrophic flood in the home.  The failure could come from a number of causes including age, improperly installation, poor-quality materials or poor design.

The hoses are generally under the same pressure as the other plumbing in the home.  Imagine having an open faucet running directly on your floor.

Ask someone whose hose broke while they were asleep or out of town and you’ll hear stories of how quickly the water can damage walls, flooring, and furniture.  Almost anyone with a pair of pliers can replace the hoses for under $30.00 to avoid this potential disaster.

As you’re shopping for the replacement hoses, consider the braided stainless steel connectors available at any home center.  The advantage is that the stainless steel offers additional protection in case a soft spot develops in the hose beneath.  They’ll cost a little more but offer considerably more protection for a nominal additional price.

Credit Utilization Affects Your Score

Credit utilization reflects how much of your available credit is being used at a given time.  Lower credit utilization indicates that a borrower is not heavily relying on their credit and that they are using their credit responsibly.

Is calculated by dividing your total credit card balances by your total limits.  The higher the percentage, the higher the risk which adversely affects the credit score according to most of the companies.  It is recommended that your credit utilization be under 30% to positively impact your credit score.

If the available limit on a credit card is $12,000 and their normal monthly balance is around $3,000, they have a credit utilization of 25%.  If for whatever reason, the borrower’s available limit was reduced to $6,000, and their long history of having a monthly balance of $3,000, the ratio, then, increases to 50% which will likely lower their credit score.

For borrowers who use more than 30% of their available credit and regularly pay off the bill each month, they should consider making payments toward the balance more frequently, like every two weeks.  This keeps the balance lower, and, in many cases, the card issuer will only report the credit activity once a month to the credit bureau, usually on the monthly closing date of the account.

Another option may be to use multiple cards, if they are available, for the purchases during the month.  Based on the limits of each card, this could result in lower utilization on a single card.

You could also ask for your available credit to be increased.  Assuming you have a good history of paying on time, this may be an easy fix.  Before doing this, ask if it could negatively impact your credit score because it will be reported as a hard inquiry on your credit.

If you are trying to improve your score to qualify for a mortgage, consult with a trusted mortgage professional who can advise you specifically for your situation.  If you would like a recommendation, please contact me at Berrier6@msn.com.

Larger Payment, Shorter Term, Bigger Savings


Some people consider a house payment as basic as monthly utilities but with a plan and some discipline, you can be mortgage free.

Consider a person borrowed $300,000 at 3% for 30 years, the principal and interest payment would be $1,264.81 and at the end of 12 years, the unpaid balance on the mortgage would be $210,900.

If that same person had financed the home on a 15-year term at 2.5%, the payments would have been $2,000 but the unpaid balance at the end of 12 years would be $69,310.  The homeowner will have a larger equity but they have also had to make higher payments.

15-year mortgages usually have a lower interest rate than the 30-year loans and at the time this article was written, the difference in a 30-year loan was about 0.5%.  A 15-year loan gives the lender their money back in half the time.  If rates go up during the interim, they will be able to loan it at the higher rate sooner.  For that reason, they are usually willing to offer a slightly lower rate on the shorter term.

Having a lower rate means paying less interest but another remarkable thing happens, lower interest rate loans amortize faster than higher rate loans.

 30-year15-year
$300,000 mortgage for 30 years3%2.5%
Monthly payment$1,264.81$2,000
Unpaid balance at end of 12 years$210,900$69,310
Increased equity $141,590
Additional monthly payment $735.56
Additional total payments for 12 years $105,920
Savings $35,670

This recognized wealth building technique with higher payments, saves interest and retires the mortgage sooner.  The shorter-term mortgage requires a commitment to make the higher payments each month rather than giving the borrower flexibility to spend or invest the difference each month for as long as the loan is in place.

To make you own calculations, go to the 30yr vs. 15yr Comparison.

If you are ready to buy a home or need a real estate consultation, I am ready to assist you. Call me at 719-547-8135

“Mise en Place” for Homebuying


In cooking, “mise en place” describes having all your ingredients measured, cut, peeled, sliced, grated, as well as bowls, utensils and pans ready to use before you begin cooking.  The advantage is to inventory the ingredients and recognize if you have everything you need.  You are less likely to leave out an ingredient or step because it is “set up” and ready to use.

The same technique works well in the homebuying process, especially in today’s highly competitive environment where multiple offers are normal and bidding wars are commonplace.

Check your credit … not only does credit determine if you will get a mortgage, but it will also determine the interest rate you’ll pay.  The best rates are for the borrowers with the best credit; lower credit scores mean higher rates because of additional risk to the lender.  Free copies are available from all three major credit bureaus at www.AnnualCreditReport.com.

Determine your budget … knowing your income and immediate living expenses will give you a feel for what you can afford but you also need to know what big-ticket expenses are in the future and how much you should be saving for them.  Lenders use debt to income ratios to qualify borrowers, but it may be more than the buyers feel comfortable with.  This is good information to discuss with your mortgage professional.

Meet with a mortgage banker … their job is to get borrowers approved and instead of using calculators on a website, a trusted, experienced mortgage professional can look at your credit, make suggestions if it can be improved, run verifications on income, assets and liabilities and suggest loan programs to benefit your specific situation.  They can even provide a pre-approval letter and phone verification that may be the tipping point to negotiating a successful contract with a seller.

Initial investment … The down payment and closing costs are related to the type of mortgage, which is generally, dependent of how much of the buyer’s savings is available.  The down payment can range between zero and 20%.  Mortgage insurance is necessary on most loans if the down payment is less than 20%.  Buyer’s normal closing costs range between two to five percent of the mortgage.

Costs of homeownership – Most mortgage payments include the principal and interest plus 1/12 the annual property taxes and insurance plus mortgage insurance if required.  Other expenses that will be incurred by the homeowner include maintenance, HOA dues, utilities, upkeep and replacement of equipment and appliances.

Process and timeline … people tend to feel more comfortable when they understand the process of buying a home and the length of time it takes for the different steps.  Your real estate agent will be able to provide this information to you based on the type of mortgage and local market conditions.

Know the numbers … being familiar with the basic statistics makes planning and even, negotiation easier to predict.  Important data, relative to the type of property you are buying, includes the current supply of homes for sale, days on market, sales price to list price ratio, and percent of cash sales in your price range.  This is another area that your real estate professional can be very helpful.

Must-have features … the concept of a “dream home” is more myth than reality.  People rarely get everything they want even when they are building a home.  Especially, in a highly competitive market with rapidly increasing prices, buyers should create a list of their “must have” and “nice to have” features and amenities.  This can be helpful when you are determining whether to write a contract on a home.

Build your team … buying a home is like an athletic team.  By selecting the best “players” for each position, you will have a much better chance for a successful sale and a satisfactory transaction.  Your real estate agent is in a unique position to guide you through the entire process and recommend trusted professionals for each job that needs to be done. 

An excellent meal includes fresh, good food, the right ingredients, superb preparation, and execution.  Whether you are following a recipe or doing it from memory, each step is important and affects the outcome.  The same is true for buying a home.  Get everything together before you start looking at homes.

For more information on buying a home, download our Buyers Guide.

Before you pay cash for a home


Before you pay cash for a home

Before you pay cash for a home, ask yourself if there is a possibility, at some point in the future, you might put a mortgage on the home and would want to deduct the mortgage interest on your federal tax return.

Current federal tax law allows homeowners to deduct the interest on up to $750,000 in acquisition debt used to buy, build or improve a property.  When a person pays cash for a home, the acquisition debt is zero.  The only way to increase the acquisition debt is to make and finance the improvements to the home.

As with many IRS regulations, there are exceptions to this rule.  If a mortgage is secured on the first or second home within 90 days of the purchase closing, the debt is considered acquisition debt.  The interest on the funds used to purchase the home can be deducted on up to $750,000 of the mortgage balance.

Assuming a borrower has good credit, the ability to repay the loan and the home justifies the loan, lenders are willing to make mortgages for homeowners.  It does not mean that the interest on the mortgage will be deductible.

Additional information can be found in Publication 936, Home Mortgage Interest Deduction, of the Internal Revenue Service at IRS.gov.

To deduct home mortgage interest, you must file Form 1040 or 1040-SR and itemize deductions on Schedule A.  The mortgage must be secured debt on a qualified home in which you have an ownership interest.  Interest on home equity loans is only deductible if the borrowed funds are used to buy, build or substantially improve the taxpayer’s home that secures the loan.

If you answered yes or even maybe to the question first posed in this article, contact your tax professional to determine the best way to approach your individual situation.  For more information, download the Homeowners Tax Guide.